Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
One-OffUS PoliticsElectionPolitics2026 US Midterms20d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:45 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 93.5%
Forecasters
121
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJun 12, 25, 12:28 PM UTCNov 15, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves to YES if the Democratic Party wins at least 218 of the 435 seats in the US House of Representatives in the November 2026 elections.
- This can include independent candidates who caucus with the Democrats (in the same way that the party's Senate majority relies on independent senators).
- It doesn't matter if a Democrat actually becomes Speaker, only who wins more than half the seats in the election.
