Will Democrats win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections?
One-OffUS PoliticsElectionPolitics2026 US Midterms7d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 92.5%
Forecasters
53
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleFeb 20, 26, 1:55 AM UTCNov 4, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketWill the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves based on the results of the U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
- The market resolves YES if Democrats win 218 or more seats (a majority of the 435 total seats).
- The market resolves NO if Republicans win 218 or more seats.
- Resolution will be determined by official results from the House Clerk's office at https://clerk.house.gov/
- Following the 2024 elections, Republicans hold a 220-215 majority in the House.
