Will Democrats win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections?
One-OffUS PoliticsElectionPolitics1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 89.1%
Forecasters
49
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleFeb 20, 26, 1:55 AM UTCNov 4, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves based on the results of the U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
- The market resolves YES if Democrats win 218 or more seats (a majority of the 435 total seats).
- The market resolves NO if Republicans win 218 or more seats.
- Resolution will be determined by official results from the House Clerk's office at https://clerk.house.gov/
- Following the 2024 elections, Republicans hold a 220-215 majority in the House.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Democrats win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Democrats win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections? resolve?
- Will Democrats win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections? is scheduled to resolve on November 4, 2026.
- How is Will Democrats win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria