Will the Democratic Party win a majority in the Senate in the 2026 mid-term election
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 51.2%
Forecasters
36
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleMar 12, 26, 6:47 AM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if Democrats win a majority of the 100 Senate seats following elections in 2026.
- The Democrats would need 51 seats to control the chamber.
- If seat >= 51 resolve as YES
- If seat < 51 resolve as NO
- If the election is cancelled resolve as NO
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Democratic Party win a majority in the Senate in the 2026 mid-term election?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 51% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the Democratic Party win a majority in the Senate in the 2026 mid-term election resolve?
- Will the Democratic Party win a majority in the Senate in the 2026 mid-term election is scheduled to resolve on December 30, 2026.
- How is Will the Democratic Party win a majority in the Senate in the 2026 mid-term election settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria