Will President Trump be in office after November 3, 2027 (one year after the mid-term election)?
PoliticsOne-OffEntertainmentMusicUS PoliticsElection1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 16, 2026, 3:30 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastIn Office 82.9%+56.2%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 days ago
StaleJul 15, 26, 2:19 PMNov 4, 27, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
In Office83%
Volume trend
$172Jul 152d of dataJul 16
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves based on the official status of Donald Trump on November 4, 2027, at 12:00 AM Eastern Time (ET).
- Exactly one of the following options will resolve YES, and all other options will resolve NO:
- In Office: Donald Trump is the sitting President of the United States.
- Out of Office due to death: Donald Trump is no longer in office, and his departure was caused by his death.
- Out of Office due to removal: Donald Trump is no longer in office, and his departure was due to conviction following impeachment by the Senate or permanent removal via Section 4 of the 25th Amendment.