Will the Republicans maintain a majority in the senate after the midterms
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms5d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 67%
Forecasters
34
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 35 minutes ago
Mar 25, 26, 2:44 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Kalshi2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if Republicans maintain a majority in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
- Currently, Republicans hold 53 seats and Democrats hold 47 (including two independents), with 35 seats up for election—22 held by Republicans and 13 by Democrats.
- Republicans can lose only two seats and retain a majority.
- Resolution will be determined by the official results certified by the Senate following the November 3, 2026 elections, including two special elections in Florida and Ohio.
- Republicans gained majority control of the Senate in the 2024 elections by flipping four Democratic seats.
