Will Republicans maintain control of the US house following the 2026 midterm elections?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 76.2%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleOct 8, 26, 3:14 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:00 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsControl of the US Senate after the 2026 Elections
FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the Republican Party wins a majority of seats (at least 218 of 435) in the United States House of Representatives in the midterm elections held on November 3, 2026, or otherwise maintains control of the chamber when the 120th Congress is officially convened on January 3, 2027.
- This market will resolve to NO if the Democratic Party (or any other non-Republican coalition) wins a majority of seats or otherwise secures control of the chamber.
- Key Details:
- Tie-Breaker/Independent Seats: If neither major party wins 218 seats outright due to third-party or independent representatives, control will be determined by which party officially organizes the House and elects the Speaker of the House when the 120th Congress convenes.
- Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined by official election results published by the Clerk of the United States House of Representatives.
