Will Republicans maintain a majority in the House of Representatives throughout the 119th Congress?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 98%
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18
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 14 hours ago
StaleNov 14, 24, 12:17 AM UTCJan 3, 27, 4:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
Will the number of representatives in the House of Representatives who are members of the republican party be majority throughout the entirety of the 119th Congress?
- Republicans will be deemed to be in the majority as long as a majority of the members seated and sworn throughout the entirety of the 119th Congress are Republicans.
- Failure to elect a speaker or failure to form a conference with a majority of members of the house will not, standing alone, resolve this market to "NO."
- If there is a question as to whether a certain number is Republican, how they are identified by the clerk of the house on official paperwork will control.
- Expulsion from the conference or the republican party from the state which they represent standing alone will not count as them having left the Republican Party unless the clerk of the house, on official paperwork, records them as a designation other than Republican.
- This market resolved immediately to "NO" if the Republicans have lost a majority.
