What are the current odds for Will Taiwan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031??

Manifold Markets prices No at 94.6% as of October 27, 2026.

Will Taiwan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 94.6%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 20 hours ago

Stale

Feb 9, 24, 1:40 PM UTCMar 1, 31, 10:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Taiwan has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031.

This device must be under the sovereign control of the Taiwanese State, and they must have the ability to use it independently.
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