Will Russian ISPs require additional payments from end-users for cross-border traffic by the end of 2026
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 82.9%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleMay 18, 26, 7:23 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, for majority of internet users (both mobile and landline) in Russia, a payment for 30Gb/month of international traffic is going to be at least twice as high, as payment for 30Gb/month of domestic traffic.
- If no such cost difference exist for majority of internet users in Russia by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No." Resolution will be based on reports from reputable technology news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, TASS, Interfax, or major cybersecurity and telecommunications industry publications), official pricing information from major mobile and landline ISP (MTS, Beeline, Megafon, Tele2, Rostelecom, etc)