Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council in the next 5 years?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.2%
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14
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 8 hours ago
StaleNov 5, 23, 3:13 AM UTCNov 12, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Given current information, the probability of Russia being removed from the UN Security Council in the next 5 years seems highly unlikely [1][3].
- This judgment is based on a few key observations.
- First, there are several significant legal obstacles that make it nearly impossible to remove Russia from the Security Council [1][3][4].
- These include the need for a majority vote from the General Assembly, which would also need to include all five permanent members of the Security Council, one of which is Russia [1][8].
- Adding to this difficulty is the lack of a clear legal basis for such a removal [4][5].
- Second, there is not enough support from other UN member states for the removal of Russia [3][7][8][9].