Will the UN Security Council hold a formal meeting on outer space before November 15, 2026?
One-OffSpaceElectionRussia / UkraineChinaPolitics16dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 71.8%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleSep 15, 26, 10:42 PM UTCNov 15, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
On 2026-09-15 the United States publicly confirmed for the first time that it has deployed an offensive weapon in Earth orbit (BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cmn07yjqg5rwo ; CBS: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-confirms-weapons-in-space-china-russia-respond/ ).
- China warned against turning outer space into a "battlefield"; Russia responded as well.
- This market asks whether that shock actually reaches the UN Security Council as a formal item, rather than being handled in the UN General Assembly First Committee (which meets every October and always covers outer space) or in statements alone.
- RESOLUTION Resolves YES if, between market creation and 2026-11-15 23:59 UTC, the UN Security Council convenes a FORMAL meeting whose official agenda item, meeting title, or announced sub-item explicitly refers to outer space or space security. - Counts: open debates, briefings, signature events, and formal votes recorded in the Security Council meetings record. - Does NOT count: closed consultations, Arria-formula meetings, press statements, presidential statements, written products, or any meeting where space is merely discussed under an unrelated agenda title.
- RESOLUTION SOURCE (named oracle): the Security Council official meetings record at https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/ together with UN Meetings Coverage press releases at https://press.un.org/en .
- If the two disagree, UN Meetings Coverage governs.
