Will Republicans surprisingly win the house in 2026 midterms?
PoliticsOne-Off2026 US MidtermsUS PoliticsElection29d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.1%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleOct 25, 26, 6:01 PM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Max Miller leave the House before the midterms?
KalshiWill Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsSpeaker of the House after the midterms?
PolymarketWhen will the AP call control of the US House after the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsSplit Senate and House in the 2026 Midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill Hakeem Jeffries be the Majority or Minority Leader in the House after the Midterms?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the Republican Party wins a majority of seats (at least 218 seats) in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 2026 midterm elections.
- Resolution will be determined once all race results are officially certified or when major decision desks (e.g., AP News, Decision Desk HQ) project a Republican majority.
- If Democrats or any other coalition win 218 or more seats, this market resolves to NO.
- Note on wording: Subjective terms in the title such as "surprisingly" are disregarded for resolution; the market resolves strictly on whether Republicans retain or win control of the House.
- The 2026 United States midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026, with all 435 voting seats in the House of Representatives on the ballot.