Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.6%
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11
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Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingFeb 8, 23, 8:19 PM UTCDec 31, 39, 10:59 PM UTC
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Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2030?
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PolymarketRules
It's hard to defined "normalize" precisely, but would involve peace between the two countries, a lack of territorial claims against each other (or commitments to settle such claims peacefully and amicably), diplomatic and trade relations, and at least a neutral attitude of the populations towards each other.
- For reference, I consider relations between Georgia and Russia not to have been normal since 2008.
- Relations between France and Germany after WWII normalized around the mid-1950ies.