Will Poland become more authoritarian in 2026?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will Poland become more authoritarian in 2026??

Manifold Markets prices No at 83.4% as of September 26, 2026.

When does Will Poland become more authoritarian in 2026? resolve?

Will Poland become more authoritarian in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2027.

How is Will Poland become more authoritarian in 2026? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if Poland's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2027) compared to the last report.

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POLYMARKET

US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• September 30-1.0pt90%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol

$3.9M

24h Vol

$630.1K

POLYMARKET

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

• No+0.1pt100%
• Yes-0.1pt0%

Total Vol

$11.2M

24h Vol

$404.2K

POLYMARKET

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?

• December 31-2.0pt19%
• October 319%
• September 30+0.1pt1%

+9 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?

• March 31+4.0pt73%
• December 31-0.9pt56%
• November 30+0.5pt39%

+20 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

• No+1.0pt84.2%
• Yes-1.0pt15.8%

Total Vol

$69.8M

24h Vol

$217K

POLYMARKET

Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

• No+0.2pt100%
• Yes-0.2pt0%

Total Vol

$2.7M

24h Vol

$198.3K

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