PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
September 21 98%Leader of 13 outcomes
Market quality
47 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$17.5K
Liquidity
$12.3K
Medium liquiditySpread
10.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
3
7d Change
+3.5 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Sep 17, 26, 5:58 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 7:59 PM UTC
Trends
Won
Before close: 100% ·
Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Iran and Oman announce a permanent Hormuz shipping scheme by October 31?
Manifold MarketsFree flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman.
- An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.
- No attribution is required.
- A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.