Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 87.7%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMar 31, 26, 4:21 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if KIA-led forces have captured Myitkyina, the capital of Kachin State, by December 31, 2027.
- YES if by December 31, 2027:
- Northern Command HQ captured or surrendered
- Myitkyina Air Base under KIA control
- No organized junta battalion resistance
- KIA administering civilian affairs