Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 61.8%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleMar 31, 26, 4:21 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will KIA-led forces have captured Myitkyina by December 31, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill KIA-led forces have captured Myitkyina by December 31, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill KIA-led forces have captured Myitkyina by December 31, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill KIA-led forces have captured Katha by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if KIA-led forces have captured Myitkyina, the capital of Kachin State, by December 31, 2030.
- YES if by December 31, 2030:
- Northern Command HQ captured or surrendered
- Myitkyina Air Base under KIA control
- No organized junta battalion resistance
- KIA administering civilian affairs
Open markets
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $717.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.1%
- September 30-4.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-21.5pt47%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65M
- 24h Vol
- $116.9K
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will KIA-led forces have captured Myitkyina by December 31, 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 62% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will KIA-led forces have captured Myitkyina by December 31, 2030? resolve?
- Will KIA-led forces have captured Myitkyina by December 31, 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will KIA-led forces have captured Myitkyina by December 31, 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if KIA-led forces have captured Myitkyina, the capital of Kachin State, by December 31, 2030.