Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 55.5%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 36 minutes ago
Apr 30, 26, 7:48 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "YES" if Kamala Harris officially announces her candidacy for the 2028 U.S. Presidential election.
- An official announcement includes a statement released by her campaign, a formal filing with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), or a direct, unambiguous public declaration of her intent to run.
- The market resolves to "NO" if she explicitly states she will not run, or if the 2028 inauguration occurs without her having announced a campaign.
- Resolution will be based on reports from major, reputable news outlets (e.g., AP, Reuters, The New York Times, CNN).
- If she forms an exploratory committee or makes a similar formal step toward candidacy, this will be considered an announcement of a run.
