Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 56.5%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleFeb 8, 26, 4:59 AM UTCDec 30, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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FutuurRules
Resolution Criteria
- The next Australian federal election is scheduled to occur between May and September 2028.
- This market resolves YES if the Liberal-National Coalition formally splits at a Federal level (i.e., the Nationals formally withdraw from the Coalition agreement) at any point before the next federal election.
- Conditions for Resolution:
- - The split must be announced by official party leadership (Liberal or National).
- - The split must be reported by major Australian news outlets (e.g., ABC, SMH, The Australian).
