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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Who will win the 2026 election for California's 40th State Senate district
Manifold Markets

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 40th State Senate district

PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionWeather6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Kristie Bruce-Lane 30.4%
Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters

4

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 3 days ago

Stale
Jul 2, 25, 3:31 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Kristie Bruce-Lane30%

Rules

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially declared the winner of the 2026 election for California's 40th State Senate district.
  • The outcome will be determined based on the certified election results published by the California Secretary of State.
  • (en.wikipedia.org)
  • The 40th State Senate district encompasses parts of inland San Diego County, including cities such as San Marcos, Escondido, Poway, Santee, and various unincorporated communities.
  • The seat is currently held by Republican Brian Jones, who will be termed out in 2026.

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Rules

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially declared the winner of the 2026 election for California's 40th State Senate district.
  • The outcome will be determined based on the certified election results published by the California Secretary of State.
  • (en.wikipedia.org)
  • The 40th State Senate district encompasses parts of inland San Diego County, including cities such as San Marcos, Escondido, Poway, Santee, and various unincorporated communities.
  • The seat is currently held by Republican Brian Jones, who will be termed out in 2026.