Will Joe Biden have a shorter post-presidency than George Washington
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 73.9%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleAug 13, 26, 3:24 AM UTCOct 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
USS George Washington departs CENTCOM by which date?
PolymarketWill Donald Trump or Joe Biden die before Jan 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill it be reported that Joe Biden used Ambien before the 2024 presidential debate?
KalshiWill Joe Biden die of prostate cancer by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsCredible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2028
Manifold MarketsHow many United States ex-Presidents will attend Joe Biden’s funeral
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Joe Biden has a strictly shorter post-presidency than George Washington.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
- George Washington's post-presidency: March 4, 1797, to December 14, 1799 (exactly 1,015 days).
- Joe Biden's post-presidency: Began at noon on January 20, 2025.
- To have a strictly shorter post-presidency than George Washington, Joe Biden must pass away on or before October 31, 2027 (representing 1,014 days or fewer).