Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 64.2%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleFeb 9, 24, 5:28 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Credible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2028
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Manifold MarketsWill it be reported that Joe Biden used Ambien before the 2024 presidential debate?
KalshiPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRules
This will resolve based on mainstream media reports.
- Any kind of dementia counts.
- Outside speculation does not count, unless the evidence is so strong that mainstream media consensus emerges.
- I do not bet on my markets.
Open markets
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+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
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+17 more outcomes
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- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.2%
- Marco Rubio20.2%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
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- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2028?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 64% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2028 resolve?
- Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2028 is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2028.
- How is Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2028 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This will resolve based on mainstream media reports.