Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 63.7%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleFeb 9, 24, 5:31 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This will resolve based on mainstream media reports.
- Any kind of dementia counts.
- Outside speculation does not count, unless the evidence is so strong that mainstream media consensus emerges.
- I do not bet on my markets.