Will Iran’s parliament hold a vote on initiating withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027?
One-OffGeopoliticsMiddle EastPolitics2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 76.8%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleSep 30, 26, 8:04 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolution criteria: This question resolves YES if the Iranian Parliament (Majlis) holds a formal vote to approve or reject Iran’s withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
- The measure does not need to pass; the question resolves YES once the qualifying vote has taken place, regardless of the outcome.
- The vote must be confirmed by an official Iranian parliamentary or government source, or by reliable reporting from major international news outlets.
- The parliamentary debate, committee consideration, or an announcement that a vote will be held does not qualify.
- On 21 August, hardline Iranian parliamentarian Qasem Ravanbakhsh says a proposal for Iran to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has been submitted to parliament and is being pursued, citing support from the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. [Iran International; Khabar Online]
- Throughout August, there has been a noticeable uptick in the number of Iranian parliamentarians and clerics discussing withdrawal from the NPT.
