Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 75.2%
Forecasters
91
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Mar 13, 26, 8:59 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
With the US and Israel launching a war on Iran and assassinating the Supreme Leader, will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026, or will this give way to a freer regime?
- If The Economist Democracy Index scores Iran lower for the year of 2026 than 2025, this market resolves YES.
- If it scores the same or higher, this market resolves NO.
- -- details below --
- Note that at the time of market creation, the 2025 The Economist Democracy Index has not yet been published, though it is expected to be published soon.
- To be clear, this market is comparing the index covering the state of Iran in 2025 and 2026, not the index published in 2025 and 2026.