Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 74.4%
Forecasters
90
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMar 13, 26, 8:59 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill India become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran become a democracy in 2026?
KalshiUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRules
With the US and Israel launching a war on Iran and assassinating the Supreme Leader, will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026, or will this give way to a freer regime?
- If The Economist Democracy Index scores Iran lower for the year of 2026 than 2025, this market resolves YES.
- If it scores the same or higher, this market resolves NO.
- -- details below --
- Note that at the time of market creation, the 2025 The Economist Democracy Index has not yet been published, though it is expected to be published soon.
- To be clear, this market is comparing the index covering the state of Iran in 2025 and 2026, not the index published in 2025 and 2026.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 74% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026? resolve?
- Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: With the US and Israel launching a war on Iran and assassinating the Supreme Leader, will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026, or will this give way to a freer regime?