Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 72.7%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleApr 11, 26, 4:42 PM UTCMar 31, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill India become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran become a democracy in 2026?
KalshiNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketUS imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?
PolymarketRules
This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if Iran's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2027) compared to the last report.
- If the report is paywalled, I may resolve to a secondary source such as Wikipedia.
- If Iran's democracy score for 2026 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.
- @/cash/will-the-world-become-more-authorit-2R20yhg9dh
- 🇺🇸 @/cash/will-the-us-become-more-authoritari
- 🇺🇸 @/cash/will-the-united-states-become-more-QNC56OL95y
Open markets
Russia / UkrainePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $549.5K
POLYMARKETRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
- United Russia (ER)+0.6pt100%
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)-0.1pt0%
- A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)0%
+5 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027-1.0pt14%
- December-1.0pt7%
- September 30,-0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- UNRWA+0.5pt8%
- International Court of Justice-1.8pt6%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUnited Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
- 325–339-0.5pt37.1%
- 340–354+2.0pt24.7%
- 310–324-5.0pt22.7%
POLYMARKETBank of Russia decision in September?
- No Change-1.0pt68.7%
- Decrease+1.5pt28.3%
- Increase-1.1pt3%
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
- Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
- Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 73% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026? resolve?
- Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2027.
- How is Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if Iran's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2027) compared to the last report.