Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 53.7%
Forecasters
29
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJun 3, 24, 9:34 AM UTCJan 1, 41, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Iran become a democracy in 2026?
KalshiWill China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Russia become a democracy first?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran become more authoritarian in 2026?
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PolymarketRules
Criteria for Resolution:
- Democracy Definition: Iran must undergo significant political changes resulting in a form of government characterized by free and fair elections, protection of civil liberties, political pluralism, and the rule of law.
- Verification of Democratic Status:
- - Free and Fair Elections: Iran must hold national elections that are widely recognized as free and fair by reputable international organizations, such as the United Nations, the European Union, or credible NGOs like Freedom House or the Carter Center.
- - Civil Liberties: There must be substantial evidence of the protection of civil liberties, including freedom of speech, press, assembly, and religion, as reported by reputable human rights organizations.
- - Political Pluralism: Multiple political parties must be able to operate without undue restriction, and opposition parties must have a genuine chance to compete for power.
Open markets
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- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
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+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 54% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040? resolve?
- Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2041.
- How is Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Criteria for Resolution: