Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 53.7%
Forecasters
29
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJun 3, 24, 9:34 AM UTCJan 1, 41, 10:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Iran become a democracy in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Criteria for Resolution:
- Democracy Definition: Iran must undergo significant political changes resulting in a form of government characterized by free and fair elections, protection of civil liberties, political pluralism, and the rule of law.
- Verification of Democratic Status:
- - Free and Fair Elections: Iran must hold national elections that are widely recognized as free and fair by reputable international organizations, such as the United Nations, the European Union, or credible NGOs like Freedom House or the Carter Center.
- - Civil Liberties: There must be substantial evidence of the protection of civil liberties, including freedom of speech, press, assembly, and religion, as reported by reputable human rights organizations.
- - Political Pluralism: Multiple political parties must be able to operate without undue restriction, and opposition parties must have a genuine chance to compete for power.
