Will China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Russia become a democracy first?
AI
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Russia 33.3%Leader of 4 outcomes
Russia 33.3%Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJul 8, 24, 4:56 PM UTCDec 31, 49, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiSaudi Arabia military action against Yemen on?
PolymarketRules
As classified by their polity score or V-DEM score https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polity_data_series#Scores_for_2018
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V-Dem_Democracy_Indices
- Update 2025-11-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If both Polity score and V-DEM score are discontinued, the creator will update the market to use other democracy scores for resolution.