Current community forecast
Yes 95.6%
Forecasters
48
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleFeb 18, 22, 9:12 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 5:00 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
On October 3rd 2021, Robin Hanson tweeted (https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1444765968987824140),
- > OK, so to summarize a proposal: I'd bet my $1K to your $9K (both increased by S&P500 scale factor) that when US labor participation rate < 10%, em-like automation will contribute more to GDP than AGI-like.
- And we commit our descendants to the bet.
- > I agree to this bet.
- This question resolves to YES if either Robin Hanson concedes the bet to me, or it is clear that I have won, even in the absence of a clear concession by Robin Hanson.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
