Will an AI Labor Shock Crash Markets by 2035?
EconomyAIOne-OffHealth & MedicineEquitiesEuropeBusiness & Corporate8y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 58.9%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 8, 25, 1:46 AM UTCDec 31, 34, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWill the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 20 years?
Manifold MarketsWill the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 10 years?
Manifold MarketsWill the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 15 years?
Manifold MarketsWill Canada's Unemployment Rate exceed 6.4% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Labor market) (Employment) (Layoffs)?
ForecastExWill Canada's Unemployment Rate exceed 6.6% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Labor market) (Employment) (Layoffs)?
ForecastExRules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that, before January 1st 2035, a major equity market correction is triggered primarily by AI‑ and robotics‑driven reductions in the economic value of human labor, as defined below.
- What counts as a “major equity market correction”?
- For this market, a “major correction” means:
- At least one of these broad indices:
- Suffers a peak‑to‑trough decline of ≥30% in nominal terms,
- With the peak and trough no more than 18 months apart.
