Will the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 10 years?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 10 years??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 54.5% as of October 16, 2026.

When does Will the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 10 years? resolve?

Will the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 10 years? is scheduled to resolve on September 11, 2033.

How is Will the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 10 years? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Its hard to quantify this exactly.

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KALSHI

Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY)

• Above 3.2%+3.0pt95.5%
• Above 3.3%+8.0pt94%
• Above 3.1%+2.0pt94.5%

+18 more outcomes

Total Vol

$301.4K

24h Vol

$55.2K

KALSHI

Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY)

• Above 3.1%98.5%
• Above 3.0%98.5%
• Above 3.2%96.5%

KALSHI

CPI in October

• Above -0.1%-1.0pt97.5%
• Above 0.0%96%
• Above 0.1%+4.0pt85%

POLYMARKET

US recession by end of 2026?

• No+1.0pt93.1%
• Yes-1.0pt6.9%

Total Vol

$2.3M

24h Vol

$19K

KALSHI

Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

• Above 2.0%98.5%
• Above 2.2%+5.0pt97.5%
• Above 2.1%97.5%

KALSHI

Core inflation in December 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

• Above 2.1%98.5%
• Above 2.3%-2.0pt96.5%
• Above 2.2%97.5%

• Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?
• CPI core in October
• CPI core in November 2026
• Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
• Recession this year?
• China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
• Recession in 2027?
• October Unemployment Rate
• CPI in December
• US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
• Unemployment in October
• CPI core in December 2026