Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?
One-OffBusiness & Corporate9yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 77.8%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleOct 2, 25, 4:20 PM UTCOct 2, 35, 4:19 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if anyone reports, and Robin Hanson does not contradict within 7 days, that they requested to talk to Robin Hanson about prediction markets, and got turned down.
- Resolves NO if this does not happen after 10 years.
- Update 2025-10-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - 7-day window starts after notification: The 7 days begin once Robin Hanson is notified of the report; if he does not contradict within that period, it counts.
- Obvious abuse/false reports may be ignored: The creator may use discretion to disregard clearly dishonest or spammy repeated claims.
- Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on what counts as "turned down": A request to talk about prediction markets that is declined because the requester primarily wants to discuss their own grand theory (rather than genuinely discuss prediction markets) does NOT count as being "turned down" for purposes of this market's resolution.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 78% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets? resolve?
- Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets? is scheduled to resolve on October 2, 2035.
- How is Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if anyone reports, and Robin Hanson does not contradict within 7 days, that they requested to talk to Robin Hanson about prediction markets, and got turned down.