Will Hamas continue to exist as a military organization in Israel Palestine through 2030?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:51 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 63.4%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleOct 14, 23, 1:17 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
🇮🇱 🇵🇸 What is the most likely future of Israel/Palestine: a one-state or two-state solution?
Manifold MarketsWill Liechtenstein continue to exist as an independent state in 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill the Effective Altruism movement continue to exist in 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Dunkey's publishing company, BIGMODE, still exist as an independent publisher by the end of the following years?
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketWill Hamas agree to disarm by which date?
PolymarketRules
Going by Wikipedia.
- Will resolve no if, for example, it says "Hamas was" or describes it as a political organization but not a military one, or if Hamas is pushed out of Israel Palestine completely.
- As always, please feel free to ask any clarifying questions.
- If they change their name, that alone doesn't make them stop existing.
- If Israel takes more territory, I'll consider that part of it.