What are the current odds for Will Liechtenstein continue to exist as an independent state in 2035??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 94.3% as of October 26, 2026.

Will Liechtenstein continue to exist as an independent state in 2035?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningSource data degraded

Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:45 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

Yes 94.3%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 10 hours ago

Stale

Aug 6, 26, 3:23 PM UTCDec 31, 35, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, as of December 31, 2035, the Principality of Liechtenstein exists as an independent, sovereign state.
The market will resolve to NO if, by December 31, 2035, Liechtenstein has ceased to exist as an independent nation—for example, if it has been annexed, has voluntarily merged with another country (such as Switzerland or Austria), or has otherwise lost its status as a sovereign state.
Source of Verification: The primary source of truth will be the official list of United Nations Member States.
If Liechtenstein is listed as an active, independent member state on this list (or a direct successor official UN list), the market resolves to YES.
If the UN member state registry is unavailable or ambiguous, the market will resolve based on international diplomatic consensus, referencing official statements from the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs or the European Union.