Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 64%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleMar 6, 25, 8:43 PM UTCDec 31, 50, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Will Finland possess a Nuclear Weapon of Mass Destruction, either self-developed, or purchased/borrowed from another country, by 2050?
- A Nuclear bomb/WoMD is defined as an explosive device equal to or greater than 10 tons of TNT in energy, with the bulk of its destructive force deriving from nuclear fission, fusion, or a combination of both.
- The Finnish state does not have to officially confirm or acknowledge its possession of a Nuclear Weapon as long as there is an unambiguous consensus between experts, subject matter organizations and/or other relevant nation states that they indeed do possess Nuclear Weaponry.
- (See: Israel's Policy of Deliberate Ambiguity)
- For the purposes of this market, a stationed/borrowed etc. Nuclear Weapon only counts if its usage is under the sole discretion of the Finnish State/Defense Forces.
- Any Nuclear Weapon that requires the approval of a foreign state or actor, to be armed/launched, would not resolve this market YES.