Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 6:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 78.2%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleApr 4, 26, 9:42 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 10:38 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Iran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
PolymarketUS charges Hormuz fees by which date?
PolymarketIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
LimitlessWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
KalshiStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if the conflict ends, but ships still pay fees to Iran to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
- The payments should be a part of what I deem to be a normalized process in the post-war period for this to resolve YES.
- To determine if the conflict ends, I will use the resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/iran-x-israelus-conflict-ends-by or of a similar market with expiration dates beyond December 31st.
- If there is no such substantially similar market, and the existing Polymarket answers resolve to NO, I will use a consensus of credible reporting to determine roughly when the conflict ends.
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