Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85.1%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleApr 12, 26, 8:55 PM UTCNov 7, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Eric Swalwell win the California general election for Governor in 2026?
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is physically incarcerated in a jail, prison, or other correctional facility on Election Day (November 7) 2028.
- The market resolves to "No" if he is not incarcerated on that date.
- Resolution will be based on reliable reporting from major news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times, Wall Street Journal) confirming his custodial status on that day.
- If his status is unclear or if he is under house arrest, electronic monitoring, or probation without being held in a correctional facility, the market will resolve to "No.”
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Eric Swalwell be behind bars on Election Day 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 85% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Eric Swalwell be behind bars on Election Day 2028? resolve?
- Will Eric Swalwell be behind bars on Election Day 2028? is scheduled to resolve on November 7, 2028.
- How is Will Eric Swalwell be behind bars on Election Day 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria