Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:03 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 85.1%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleApr 12, 26, 8:55 PM UTCNov 7, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Eric Swalwell be elected the next Governor of California?
Manifold MarketsWill Eric Swalwell win the California general election for Governor in 2026?
ForecastExEric Adams charged by December 31?
PolymarketTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketJair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill Jair Bolsonaro leave prison by the end of January 2027?
FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is physically incarcerated in a jail, prison, or other correctional facility on Election Day (November 7) 2028.
- The market resolves to "No" if he is not incarcerated on that date.
- Resolution will be based on reliable reporting from major news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times, Wall Street Journal) confirming his custodial status on that day.
- If his status is unclear or if he is under house arrest, electronic monitoring, or probation without being held in a correctional facility, the market will resolve to "No.”
