Will Donald Trump either serve a third term or run for U.S. President in an election held after 2028?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionGeopolitics8y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.4%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Feb 4, 25, 8:00 PM UTCJan 1, 35, 10:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
Market Rules & Resolution Criteria:
- YES Outcome: Resolves to Yes if any of the following occur:
- Trump is inaugurated as President of the United States for a term that begins after January 20, 2029,whether through an election, legal maneuvering, or any other means.
- Trump is an official candidate for U.S. President in an election held after November 2028, as evidenced by FEC filings, ballot access, or participation in official debates.
- Trump takes control of the U.S. government through extralegal means, including but not limited to:
- Declaring himself president without winning an election.