Will Donald Trump be assassinated before the end of his presidency?
One-OffUS PoliticsPoliticsElectionSportsGolf2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.2%
Forecasters
47
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 31 minutes ago
Apr 5, 25, 1:52 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Donald Trump is assassinated (killed as a result of a deliberate attempt on his life) before the end of his presidential term ending January 20, 2029.
- It will also resolve YES if he is rendered so injured (brain death, coma, etc.) by an assassination attempt that he is forced to end his presidency.
- It resolves NO if he completes his term without being assassinated or leaves office early for reasons other than assassination (such as resignation, impeachment, or natural death).
- If he resigns as a result of fear of assassination this market will also resolve NO.
- Donald Trump has already survived at least two known assassination attempts in 2024:
