Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.7%
Forecasters
51
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Sep 16, 24, 8:09 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 5:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Donald Trump be assassinated before the end of his presidency?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is assassinated will the S&P500 rise >3% in the following week?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is assassinated will it be while visiting another country?
Manifold MarketsWhat Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump go on SNL during his second term?
KalshiHow many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if Donald Trump dies by homicide while being president (during the term beginning 1/20/2025.)
- Resolves NO if Donald Trump finishes his time in office alive OR dies of any cause while president excluding homicide.
- Clarifications:
- If Donald Trump is replaced as president by an acting President due to incapacitation caused by an assassination attempt (25th constitutional amendment) AND later dies from injuries/complications before 1/20/2029, the market resolves YES.
- Trump’s term is considered over when his 4 year term expires, or earlier if he resigns or is removed from office.
