If Trump is assassinated will the S&P500 rise >3% in the following week?
EquitiesOne-OffUS Politics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 27, 2026, 3:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 68.5%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleApr 19, 25, 1:14 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves yes if Trump is assassinated before January 20, 2029 AND in the week following (starting at the time of the fatal attack, even if death occurs at a later time) SPX increases by at least 3% (measured by exact price to exact price, or most recent close if the attack occurs outside trading hours) according to Yahoo Finance.
- Resolves no if Trump is assassinated and SPX does not increase by >3%.
- Resolves NA if Trump is not assassinated before January 20, 2029.
