Will Daniel Ortega lose power in 2026?
One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElectionGeopoliticsLatin AmericaCrime & Justice2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleJul 21, 26, 5:26 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point on or before December 31, 2026 (11:59 PM UTC), Daniel Ortega ceases to be the President (or Co-President/head of state) of Nicaragua, or otherwise definitively loses de facto power.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- To resolve to YES, one of the following events must occur and be confirmed by credible international media outlets (such as Reuters, the Associated Press, or BBC) on or before the December 31, 2026 deadline:
- Official Removal or Resignation: Daniel Ortega officially resigns, is removed, or is otherwise replaced as President/head of state.
- Death or Permanent Incapacitation: Daniel Ortega is officially declared deceased or permanently incapacitated, resulting in a successor (such as Co-President Rosario Murillo) officially assuming the presidency.
