Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBenjamin Netanyahu 69.9%+1.2ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
162
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+4.3 pts
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Mar 13, 26, 8:09 AM UTCMar 13, 40, 8:02 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Which of these leaders in the conflict between US & Israel and Iran will be the first to lose power?
- Any process or event by which they lose their position would count, e.g. democratic process, revolution, ill health, death.
- In unclear or confusing circumstances I will make a judgement based on major international media reports and Wikipedia entries within one month of credible reports.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu??
- Manifold Markets prices Benjamin Netanyahu at 70% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu? resolve?
- First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu? is scheduled to resolve on March 13, 2040.
- How is First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Which of these leaders in the conflict between US & Israel and Iran will be the first to lose power?