Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040?
EconomyOne-OffChinaGeopoliticsMacro & Economy13yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 63.6%
Forecasters
131
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleFeb 18, 22, 8:40 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This question resolves to YES if China surpasses the United States before January 1st 2040 Eastern Time on ALL three of the following metrics:
- Nominal GDP per the International Monetary Fund.
- If the IMF ceases to exist or stops publishing figures, I'll choose another organization at my discretion.
- Military expenditures per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
- If the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute ceases to exist or stops publishing figures, I'll choose another organization at my discretion.
- The Nature Index.
Open markets
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt53%
- No change-4.0pt47%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104M
- 24h Vol
- $2.7M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $376.2K
- 24h Vol
- $29K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $607.8K
- 24h Vol
- $20.8K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes+1.0pt2%
- Total Vol
- $710.8K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP86%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.2K
- 24h Vol
- $12.2K
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No96%
- Yes-1.0pt4%
- Total Vol
- $3.4M
- 24h Vol
- $8.9K
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Mexico unemployment rate in August
- Unemployment in September
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 64% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040? resolve?
- Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2040.
- How is Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question resolves to YES if China surpasses the United States before January 1st 2040 Eastern Time on ALL three of the following metrics: