Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040?
EconomyOne-OffChinaGeopoliticsMacro & Economy13yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:17 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 63.6%
Forecasters
131
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleFeb 18, 22, 8:40 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This question resolves to YES if China surpasses the United States before January 1st 2040 Eastern Time on ALL three of the following metrics:
- Nominal GDP per the International Monetary Fund.
- If the IMF ceases to exist or stops publishing figures, I'll choose another organization at my discretion.
- Military expenditures per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
- If the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute ceases to exist or stops publishing figures, I'll choose another organization at my discretion.
- The Nature Index.
