Will China ever surpass US gdp?

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will China ever surpass US gdp??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 63.6% as of October 26, 2026.

When does Will China ever surpass US gdp? resolve?

Will China ever surpass US gdp? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2102.

How is Will China ever surpass US gdp? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Sep 5, 9:58am: Resolves NO if China is passed as the second largest economy (or if either China &/ the US cease to exist)

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KALSHI

Recession this year?

• No94.5%
• Yes+2.0pt5.5%

Total Vol

$3.8M

24h Vol

$38.1K

POLYMARKET

US recession by end of 2026?

• No92.1%
• Yes7.9%

Total Vol

$2.4M

24h Vol

$24.3K

KALSHI

October 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP

• U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k16%
• U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 50-99k+11.0pt9%
• U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 100k or above5%

KALSHI

Mexico unemployment rate in October

• Above 2.6%+18.0pt54.5%
• Above 2.7%+1.0pt37%
• Above 2.8%-17.0pt27%

KALSHI

Unemployment in October

• Above 3.8%98.5%
• Above 3.7%99.5%
• Above 3.9%98%

KALSHI

Recession in 2027?

• No80.5%
• Yes-1.0pt19.5%

Total Vol

$749.5K

24h Vol

$12K

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