Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 54%
Forecasters
110
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleSep 4, 22, 8:49 PM UTCDec 31, 39, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Some beginning to doubt the 2030s projection https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-chinas-economy-surpass-the-u-s-s-some-now-doubt-it-11662123945
- Sep 4, 9:54pm: Probably I'll use The World Bank or something, if I consider reliable.
Open markets
Macro & Economy
KALSHIConnecticut multifamily housing permits in 2026
- Above 3,500 units-1.0pt88%
- Above 4,000 units-4.0pt66%
- Above 4,500 units-29.0pt19%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $53.3K
- 24h Vol
- $24.4K
KALSHIPennsylvania gas prices tomorrow
- Above 4.260099%
- Above 4.265099%
- Above 4.270098%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.3K
- 24h Vol
- $11.6K
KALSHIHousing units authorized in Vermont in 2026
- Above 1,700 units-4.0pt82%
- Above 1,600 units-11.0pt80%
- Above 1,800 units-5.0pt68%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWhat will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on September 30?
- $518K - $524K+1.8pt31.5%
- $524K - $530K+13.8pt25%
- $530K - $536K-21.3pt15.7%
POLYMARKETWhat will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on September 30?
- $1.153M - $1.169M+14.6pt37%
- $1.137M - $1.153M-6.0pt31%
- <$1.137M-25.6pt14%
KALSHICzech National Bank rate decision in September
- Maintain current rate-3.0pt86.8%
- Hike 25bps+4.0pt7.5%
- Cut 50bps1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.5K
- How high will US gas prices get in 2026?
- Will the S&P finish positive this year?
- Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend amount in 2027
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
- How low will the S&P get this year?
- Charlottetown, PEI Mayoral Election Winner
- Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- How high will the S&P get this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Visitors to Florida in 2026
- What will the median home value in New York City be on September 30?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 54% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s? resolve?
- Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2039.
- How is Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Some beginning to doubt the 2030s projection https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-chinas-economy-surpass-the-u-s-s-some-now-doubt-it-11662123945