Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 68.9%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 31 minutes ago
Jun 27, 25, 4:38 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2027, there is credible evidence from reputable sources confirming that China has sold Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) air defense systems to Iran.
- Acceptable evidence includes official government announcements, reports from established defense industry publications, or coverage by major international news organizations.
- If no such evidence is available by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."
- China and Iran have a history of military cooperation, including joint naval exercises and defense agreements.
- (apnews.com) In 2021, the two nations signed a 25-year comprehensive cooperation agreement encompassing various sectors, including military collaboration.