Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027
RegulationAIOne-OffChinaEurope3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85.6%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMar 19, 26, 4:50 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if any country officially bans or heavily restricts the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027.
- Resolution is based on official government announcements or legislation that explicitly prohibits or substantially restricts deployment of advanced AI systems (such as large language models, foundation models, or general-purpose AI systems).
- A "ban" means prohibition of use or deployment.
- A "heavy restriction" means requirements that effectively prevent widespread commercial use, such as: mandatory licensing with severe limitations, operational bans in key sectors, or restrictions requiring systems to be substantially modified or disabled.
- Restrictions on specific AI applications (e.g., biometric surveillance, emotion recognition) do not count unless they effectively prevent the use of advanced AI systems broadly.
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+3.0pt86.1%
- Yes-3.0pt13.9%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $253.8K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jul 1, 2027-11.0pt37%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-19.0pt35%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-20.0pt35%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt19.8%
- $1.75T–$2.0T18.9%
- $1.5T–$1.75T17.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027 resolve?
- Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria