Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027
RegulationAIOne-OffChinaEurope2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85.6%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleMar 19, 26, 4:50 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if any country officially bans or heavily restricts the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027.
- Resolution is based on official government announcements or legislation that explicitly prohibits or substantially restricts deployment of advanced AI systems (such as large language models, foundation models, or general-purpose AI systems).
- A "ban" means prohibition of use or deployment.
- A "heavy restriction" means requirements that effectively prevent widespread commercial use, such as: mandatory licensing with severe limitations, operational bans in key sectors, or restrictions requiring systems to be substantially modified or disabled.
- Restrictions on specific AI applications (e.g., biometric surveillance, emotion recognition) do not count unless they effectively prevent the use of advanced AI systems broadly.
