Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.8%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleMar 18, 26, 3:46 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027
Manifold MarketsBefore 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?
Manifold MarketsBy when will any EU country ban non-medical infant circumcision?
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketUK social media ban in effect by which date?
PolymarketWill another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if any country enacts a law that explicitly bans the development, deployment, or use of "advanced AI systems" before January 1, 2027.
- The ban must be a binding legal prohibition, not merely regulatory restrictions, licensing requirements, or risk-based compliance frameworks.
- For resolution purposes:
- "Advanced AI systems" refers to frontier or general-purpose AI models with significant capabilities (e.g., systems comparable to GPT-4 or similar large language models)
- The ban must apply to the entire country or a substantial portion of its territory
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+3.0pt86.1%
- Yes-3.0pt13.9%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $253.8K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jul 1, 2027-11.0pt37%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-19.0pt35%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-20.0pt35%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt19.8%
- $1.75T–$2.0T18.9%
- $1.5T–$1.75T17.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027? resolve?
- Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria