Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastApr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work 54.8%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMay 22, 26, 11:08 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 12:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true?
Manifold MarketsWhich "The Economist" "World Ahead" predictions for 2026 will come true?
Manifold MarketsWhich "AI 2027" predictions will be right by Late 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketWill Perplexity's valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketRules
The Guardian: AI will help make a Nobel prize-winning discovery within a year, says Anthropic co-founder
- Sam Bowman on X (Imgur backup)
- TL;DR Jack Clark of AI lab Anthropic gave a lecture at Oxford where, among other things, he showed a slide shown in [2] which featured some of his own predictions, which was a subject of The Guardian's article in [1].
- The ones above the line are used as basis for questions in this market.
- The questions are lightly paraphrased to save space; refer to the original slide for full phrasing and see the resolution criteria below for more info.
- Notes on resolution criteria:
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+3.0pt86.1%
- Yes-3.0pt13.9%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $253.8K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jul 1, 2027-11.0pt37%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-19.0pt35%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-20.0pt35%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt19.8%
- $1.75T–$2.0T18.9%
- $1.5T–$1.75T17.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true??
- Manifold Markets prices Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work at 55% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true? resolve?
- Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.
- How is Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The Guardian: AI will help make a Nobel prize-winning discovery within a year, says Anthropic co-founder